Welcome to the second installment of the Teen Vogue and Change Research Midterms Vibe Check. With early voting underway in many states and Election Day just weeks away, we surveyed 1,173 registered voters under the age of 35 to get their thoughts on the direction of the country.
The first Teen Vogue x Change Research poll was conducted in May, days after the leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion that signaled Roe v. Wade was going to be overturned. The results of the first vibe check were clear: Young voters thought the US was on the wrong track. They didn’t think the country’s economic and political institutions were working for them — and they didn’t trust that the course would be corrected.
But a lot has happened in the months since our first vibe check. Roe was officially overturned; the massacre of elementary school children in Uvalde, Texas, led to the passage of the first significant federal gun control bill in decades; President Biden announced plans to make good on a campaign promise to forgive student debt; and Democrats in Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which takes aim at climate change, health care costs, and the lack of taxes paid by corporations.
Despite early predictions of a washout for the Democratic party in November, the tides seem to have changed, possibly signaling an interruption to the historical trend of the president’s party losing ground in midterm elections — though the latest polls are showing a swing back in the Republican direction. The surprisingly productive summer for Democrats also saw high inflation continue to drive up the cost of food and rent. And again, historically, the party in power usually loses some seats in the midterms. So, with Election Day coming up on November 8, control of the Senate is still a toss-up.
Our new poll, conducted between October 5 and 11, found that recent Democratic achievements are popular on paper with young voters, but that many of them remain unaware of the legislation that's been passed or wish the Democrats would do more. Here are some major takeaways:
Democratic policies and legislation are popular among young voters
Recent Democratic accomplishments are popular with young voters, with one of the major wins being student loan debt forgiveness. Two-thirds of surveyed voters support the Biden administration’s forgiveness plan, and 40% of voters say student debt forgiveness has made them more supportive overall of Biden and the Democratic Party.
Among respondents, the most popular proposals are new measures in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that cap Medicare copays on insulin, extend health insurance premium subsidies, and allow Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices, with 80% of surveyed voters saying they totally support these actions.
The IRA’s climate provisions are popular too, with 63% of respondents supporting the legislation’s measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, aimed at investing over a trillion dollars in roads, bridges, and electric grids, earns 75% approval from young voters.
Sixty-nine percent of respondent voters support measures in the Inflation Reduction Act that close loopholes for corporations, forcing them to pay a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%, while 60% support the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a law aimed at reducing gun violence and keeping schools safe.
Approval of Biden’s accomplishments is nearly the same among young Biden voters who disapprove of the president as those who approve of him.
But many young voters don’t know what Democrats have accomplished
Although Democrats have enjoyed recent legislative victories, there seems to be a gap between these achievements and what the party has been able to communicate to young voters. Many respondents haven’t heard of the legislation Democrats have passed. Some don’t know who the candidates are in their statewide midterm elections and what they stand for. “We might see greater improvement in key measures if lawmakers and campaigns directly communicated these policies to young voters,” the Change Research team tells Teen Vogue. “Unfortunately, few [young voters] have heard about these accomplishments.”
Fewer than 30% of surveyed voters have heard of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act — the first significant federal gun reform legislation in nearly three decades. Barely half have heard about the Inflation Reduction Act, which is best known for its provisions to reduce US carbon emissions, and only 23% have heard a lot about the IRA. Just weeks before the election, almost half of the respondents say they've seen, read, or heard “only a little” or “nothing at all” about the candidates for Congress in their area.
There are two significant outliers to this awareness gap: Most young voters have heard about the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade (97%) and the Biden administration forgiving $10,000 in federal student loan debt (89%). Student debt relief has made 40% of respondents either much or somewhat more supportive of Biden and the Democrats, and 4 in 10 voters deem it a “significant step forward,” compared with 32% who call it “too little, too late.”
Abortion remains a central issue in the midterms — for women
In our first Vibe Check, abortion was one of the most important issues for young voters, and that's still the case. Seventy-four percent of respondents cite the rollback in abortion rights as one of the reasons they think the country is on the wrong track. The end of Roe v. Wade has made 64% of young voters more motivated to cast a ballot, and 6 in 10 surveyed voters say they want to support a candidate in November that supports abortion rights.
It’s worth noting that there is a striking gender gap in the results: While 76% of women say the country’s changing abortion laws will impact them, 54% of men say this will not impact them. Fifty-five percent of women are very or somewhat concerned they will have an unintended pregnancy and not be able to access abortion care, while only 27% of men are worried about that for their partners. And 72% of women say they will consider a state’s abortion laws when deciding where to live in the future, compared with 48% of men.
Young voters have a sense of what Republicans would do with a majority — and it’s not what they want
Three-quarters of respondents believe it’s likely that Republicans will pass a national abortion ban if they gain control of Congress, and 63% think the party will also outlaw certain forms of contraception, like Plan B and IUDs. Young people also say a GOP-controlled Congress will “make it harder for people with whom they disagree to cast a ballot” (60%) and will cut taxes on corporations (72%). These positions are out of line with the kind of policies young people say would make them more likely to back a candidate, including supporting abortion, Medicare for All, refusing to take corporate PAC donations, and legalization of recreational cannabis.
Young voters are also worried about participation in the upcoming midterms — and what could happen in the aftermath. Sixty-two percent of respondents are concerned that eligible voters will be prevented from casting ballots, and two-thirds of young voters are worried that Republicans will refuse to accept the results of the election if they lose, compared with 33% for Democrats.
The insurrection of January 6 has left its mark on young voters too. Fifty-nine percent say they are concerned a similar attack could be launched in response to the next election’s outcome. And that’s not all they’re worried about: More than half of young voters say another civil war is likely to occur in America during their lifetime. Republicans, Independents, and Democrats are equally as likely to expect a civil war, with 55% of voters blaming the media for the division in the country, 39% blaming politicians, and 33% blaming social media.
There's little interest in dating across the aisle
Partisanship isn’t playing out only in elections; it’s part of our dating lives too. Democratic women are less likely to cross the aisle for a dating prospect than Republican men are. Eighty-four percent of Democratic women consider it a dealbreaker to say “All Lives Matter,” while 71% of Republican men consider it a dealbreaker to say “Black Lives Matter.”
Seventy percent of Democratic women say being conservative is a deal breaker; 64% of conservative men say that being liberal is a deal breaker. A stunning 84% of Democratic women say it’s a deal breaker to be antichoice; only 42% of Republican men say being pro-choice is a deal breaker.
Religion also plays into matters of the heart, with half of Democratic women saying that being a devout Christian is a deal breaker and 44% of Republican men saying being an atheist is a deal breaker.
Among the surveyed voters, the number one red flag when considering a partner is whether that person identifies as a “MAGA Republican,” with 63% of voters saying that is a definite no. Other deal breakers include being antichoice (for 56% of respondents) and a partner saying “All Lives Matter” (for 55% of them).
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